Big Data in MultiAgent Systems: Market Design Solutions

El objetivo principal de esta Tesis es presentar un conjunto de novedosos y diferentes métodos en los que los sistemas multiagente pueden jugar un papel clave en predicciones y modelos económicos en un amplio conjunto de contextos. La hipótesis principal es que los sistemas multiagente permiten la creación de modelos macroeconómicos con microfundamentos reales que son capaces de representar la economía en los diferentes niveles de acuerdo con diferentes propósitos y necesidades. La investigación se estructura en seis capítulos. El Capítulo 1 es una introducción teórica al resto de los capítulos que presentan aplicaciones empíricas. En él se compara los sistemas multiagente con dos alternativas: los modelos de equilibrio general computable y la econometría espacial. El resto de los capítulos son intencionadamente diferentes en sus objetivos y sus contenidos. Estas cinco aplicaciones incorporan diferentes tipos de agentes: incluyen individuos (2, 5, 6), familias (2, 5), empresas (3, 5, 6), establecimientos (5), instituciones financieras (6) y usuarios (4). En el ámbito espacial, la desagregación espacial es deliberadamente diferente en cada aplicación: El capítulo 4 no incluye el espacio, El capítulo 6 es una aplicación para la zona euro en su conjunto y en el capítulo 3 se toma España en su conjunto. Los capítulos 2 y 5 exploran las dos de las principales posibilidades para la incorporación del espacio en los sistemas multiagente: el capítulo 2 incluye las regiones NUTS 3 de la Unión Europea y en el capítulo 5 se geolocalizan los agentes. En el capítulo 2 se desarrolla un sistema multiagente que incluye a todos los individuos de la Unión Europea. Con este sistema podemos predecir la población a escala regional para toda la Unión Europea y cómo distintos niveles de crecimiento económico repercuten asimismo sobre el empleo. En el capítulo 3 se presenta un modelo de simulación con los principales puntos de vista de la teoría de negocios para estudiar el crecimiento empresarial y la demografía empresarial en un modelo evolutivo estocástico. El modelo que se presenta también muestra cómo las empresas se adaptan a los cambios en las características deseadas del producto y el efecto de la crisis sobre estas dinámicas. El capítulo 4 discute el papel clave de los incentivos en la seguridad de los sistemas de información. Trabajos anteriores realizan este estudio utilizando un enfoque de teoría de juegos, pero el capítulo muestra que un modelo basado en agentes es capaz de incluir la heterogeneidad y las interrelaciones entre los individuos, y no se centra en el equilibrio alcanzado sino en la dinámica antes de su aparición. El objetivo del capítulo 5 es el estudio de los efectos de la Ley para la Revitalización Comercial (Ley de Dinamización Comercial) que fue aprobada en la Comunidad de Madrid durante el año 2012. Por último, el objetivo del capítulo 6 es explicar los determinantes de la inflación y pronosticar la tasa de inflación en la zona euro en los próximos cinco años. Se predice una inflación para la zona euro creciente hasta 2018 con un límite cercano al 2,5% en tasa interanual siempre que no se produzcan perturbaciones externas relevantes

Rasmussen, Chenery and Watanabe, and labour-based multiplier analysis and sensitivity analysis of input coefficients for Spain in 2009

In this paper we identify the key sectors of the Spanish economy with the last input-output available data following the approaches by Rasmussen and by Chenery and Watanabe. We also calculate labour-based multipliers and sensitivity of input coefficients and we compare the results in order to present useful advice for sector policiesEn este trabajo analizamos cuáles son los sectores claves en España con los últimos datos publicados del marco input-output. Seguimos las metodologías de Rasmussen y de Chenery y Watanabe. También hacemos uso de los multiplicadores de remuneraciones, trabajadores y asalariados así como de la técnica de sensibilidad de coeficientes. En las conclusiones se presentan los principales hallazgos que permiten diseñar una política sectorial eficaz para Españ

Flujos migratorios, características y consecuencias: un modelo gravitacional

25 p.El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar un modelo gravitacional con el propósito de explicar los determinantes de las migraciones desde los países de Oriente Medio y el Norte de África hacia los países europeos en el periodo 2008 a 2015. Además de desarrollar un modelo gravitacional básico que incorpora la población de países emisores y receptores y la distancia, se presentan modelos que consideran el efecto del idioma común y el pasado colonial, el nivel del PIB per cápita del país emisor y receptor. Incorporando estas variables explicativas se alcanza un modelo gravitacional extendido con mayor poder explicativo. Se comprueba que algunas de las infraestimaciones más importantes de este modelo se deben a las migraciones desde países en los que opera el ISIS, como es Siria e Iraq. Por ello se complementa el modelo gravitacional extendido desde 2011 con una variable que recoge el efecto de la irrupción de este grupo terrorista en ambos países y se comprueba que es significativa y su importancia cada vez mayorThe main objective of this paper is to present a gravity model to explain the determinants of migrations from MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa) to European countries between 2008 and 2015. First, it is presented the basic gravity model that includes population levels and distance between countries. Then other models are developed that include common language and past colonialism relations, and GDP per capita in the origin and destination countries. The extended gravity model incorporates these variables and explains migration levels better than the basic model. Finally, some of the less accurate estimations of the extended gravity model are for Syria and Iraq since ISIS appeared in those countries. Therefore, a dummy variable is incorporated to the analysis. This variable is significant, and its importance has grown in the last year

Análisis de los factores de competitividad en España y Colombia : una perspectiva regional

Esta monografía es el resultado final, debidamente depurado para su publicación, del trabajo de investigación financiado por la Universidad EAN titulado: "Análisis comparado de los factores de competitividad en Colombia y España 2000-2014". Puede considerarse como un producto del Convenio Específico firmado en 2015 por la Universidad de Alcalá (a través del Instituto de Análisis Económico y Social, IAES) y la Universidad EAN (a través de su grupo de investigación Entorno Económico) para la creación y desarrollo de una red de investigación denominada Red Colombo Española de Competitividad (RECEC)248 p.El concepto de competitividad se utiliza cada vez más para comparar economías, tanto a nivel nacional y regional. Es un concepto que en primer lugar se aplicó a nivel microeconómico, pero cuya definición no está tan clara cuando se aplica a las regiones y países. Por lo tanto, es imprescindible tratar de precisarlo con el objetivo de medir a nivel regional y establecer comparaciones significativas. En la presente investigación se utiliza una metodología adaptada para las 17 regiones españolas y 24 departamentos colombianos, donde se hace una selección de 15 pilares claves de la competitividad: cultura de negocios, concentración regional/especialización, internacionalización, innovación, entorno industrial favorable, disponibilidad de capital, factores institucionales, la disponibilidad de trabajo, mano de obra altamente cualificada, empresarios y directivos de nivel de cualificación, poseducación, infraestructuras de conocimiento, infraestructuras básicas tradicionales, infraestructuras tecnológicas e imagen regional

Acid alteration of several ignitable liquids of potential use in arsons

Ignitable liquids such as fuels, alcohols and thinners can be used in criminal activities, for instance arsons. Forensic experts require to know their chemical compositions, as well as to understand how different modification effects could impact them, in order to detect, classify and identify them properly in fire debris. The acid alteration/acidification of ignitable liquids is a modification effect that sharply alters the chemical composition, for example, of gasoline and diesel fuel, interfering in the forensic analysis and result interpretation. However, to date there is little information about the consequences of this effect over other accelerants of interests. In this research paper, the alteration by sulfuric acid of several commercial thinners and other accelerants of potential use in arsons is studied in-depth. For that purpose, spectral (by ATR-FTIR) and chromatographic (by GC&-MS) data were obtained from neat and acidified samples. Then, the spectral and chromatographic modifications of each studied ignitable liquid were discussed, proposing several chemical mechanisms that explain the new by-products produced and the gradual disappearance of the initial compounds. Hydrolysis, Fischer esterification and alkylation reactions are involved in the modification of esters, alcohols, ketones and aromatic compounds of the studied ignitable liquids. This information could be crucial for correctly identifying these accelerants. Additionally, an exploratory analysis revealed that some of the most altered ignitable liquid samples might be very similar with each other, which could have impact on casework

Sensibilización y formación en la accesibilidad e inclusión de las personas con discapacidad visual al proceso de Enseñanza-Aprendizaje. SENSIVISUAL-UCM

El objetivo general de este proyecto viene definido por la necesidad de inclusión de las personas con discapacidad visual, parcial o absoluta, en el mundo académico, así como la de favorecer su incorporación al mundo laboral con unas condiciones formalizadas y estables. A través de las acciones realizadas en este proyecto de innovación y mejora de la calidad docente se podrá mejorar la accesibilidad en los diferentes Grados de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, ayudando en la generación de material didáctico y composición de grupos de trabajo que fomenten el trabajo colaborativo permitiendo el re-fuerzo académico

Staging Parkinson’s Disease According to the MNCD (Motor/Non-motor/Cognition/Dependency) Classification Correlates with Disease Severity and Quality of Life

Background: Recently, a novel simple classification called MNCD, based on 4 axes (Motor; Non-motor; Cognition; Dependency) and 5 stages, has been proposed to classify Parkinson's disease (PD). Objective: Our aim was to apply the MNCD classification in a cohort of PD patients for the first time and also to analyze the correlation with quality of life (QoL) and disease severity. Methods: Data from the baseline visit of PD patients recruited from 35 centers in Spain from the COPPADIS cohort from January 2016 to November 2017 were used to apply the MNCD classification. Three instruments were used to assess QoL: 1) the 39-item Parkinson's disease Questionnaire [PDQ-39]); PQ-10; the EUROHIS-QOL 8-item index (EUROHIS-QOL8). Results: Four hundred and thirty-nine PD patients (62.05 +/- 7.84 years old; 59% males) were included. MNCD stage was: stage 1, 8.4% (N = 37); stage 2, 62% (N = 272); stage 3, 28.2% (N = 124); stage 4-5, 1.4% (N = 6). A more advanced MNCD stage was associated with a higher score on the PDQ39SI (p < 0.0001) and a lower score on the PQ-10 (p < 0.0001) and EUROHIS-QOL8 (p < 0.0001). In many other aspects of the disease, such as disease duration, levodopa equivalent daily dose, motor symptoms, non-motor symptoms, and autonomy for activities of daily living, an association between the stage and severity was observed, with data indicating a progressive worsening related to disease progression throughout the proposed stages. Conclusion: Staging PD according to the MNCD classification correlated with QoL and disease severity. The MNCD could be a proper tool to monitor the progression of PD

Predictors of clinically significant quality of life impairment in Parkinson’s disease

COPPADIS Study Group.Quality of life (QOL) plays an important role in independent living in Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients, being crucial to know what factors impact QoL throughout the course of the disease. Here we identified predictors of QoL impairment in PD patients from a Spanish cohort. PD patients recruited from 35 centers of Spain from the COPPADIS cohort from January 2016, to November 2017, were followed up during 2 years. Health-related QoL (HRQoL) and global QoL (GQoL) were assessed with the 39-item Parkinson’s disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39) and the EUROHIS-QOL 8-item index (EUROHIS-QOL8), respectively, at baseline (V0) and at 24 months ± 1 month (V2). Clinically significant QoL impairment was defined as presenting an increase (PDQ-39SI) or decrement (EUROHIS-QOL8) at V2 ≥ 10% of the score at baseline (V0). A comparison with a control group was conducted for GQoL. GQoL did not change significantly in PD patients (N = 507; p = 0.686) or in the control group (N = 119; p = 0.192). The mean PDQ-39SI was significantly increased in PD patients (62.7 ± 8.5 years old; 58.8% males; N = 500) by 21.6% (from 16.7 ± 13 to 20.3 ± 16.4; p < 0.0001) at V2. Ninety-three patients (18.6%) presented a clinically significant HRQoL impairment at V2. To be younger (OR = 0.896; 95% CI 0.829–0.968; p = 0.006), to be a female (OR = 4.181; 95% CI 1.422–12.290; p = 0.009), and to have a greater increase in BDI-II (Beck Depression Inventory-II) (OR = 1.139; 95% CI 1.053–1.231; p = 0.001) and NMSS (Non-Motor Symptoms Scale) (OR = 1.052; 95% CI 1.027–1.113; p < 0.0001) total scores from V0 to V2 were associated with clinically significant HRQoL impairment at the 2-year follow-up (Hosmer–Lemeshow test, p = 0.665; R 2 = 0.655). An increase in ≥5 and ≥10 points of BDI-II and NMSS total score at V2 multiplied the probability of presenting clinically significant HRQoL impairment by 5 (OR = 5.453; 95% CI 1.663–17.876; p = 0.005) and 8 (OR = 8.217; 95% CI, 2.975–22.696; p = 0.002), respectively. In conclusion, age, gender, mood, and non-motor impairment were associated with clinically significant HRQoL impairment after the 2-year follow-up in PD patients.Mir P. has received honoraria from AbbVie, Abbott, Allergan, Bial, Merz, UCB and Zambon and have received grants from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness [PI16/01575] co-founded by ISCIII (Subdirección General de Evaluación y Fomento de la Investigación) and by Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER), the Consejería de Economía, Innovación, Ciencia y Empleo de la Junta de Andalucía [CVI-02526, CTS-7685], the Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social de la Junta de Andalucía [PI-0437-2012, PI-0471-2013], the Sociedad Andaluza de Neurología, the Jacques and Gloria Gossweiler Foundation, the Fundación Alicia Koplowitz, the Fundación Mutua Madrileña.Peer reviewe

Predictors of Loss of Functional Independence in Parkinson’s Disease: Results from the COPPADIS Cohort at 2-Year Follow-Up and Comparison with a Control Group

COPPADIS Study Group.[Background and objective] The aim of this study was to compare the progression of independence in activities of daily living (ADL) in Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients versus a control group, as well as to identify predictors of disability progression and functional dependency (FD).[Patients and Methods] PD patients and control subjects, who were recruited from 35 centers of Spain from the COPPADIS cohort between January 2016 and November 2017 (V0), were included. Patients and subjects were then evaluated again at the 2-year follow-up (V2). Disability was assessed with the Schwab & England Activities of Daily Living Scale (S&E-ADLS) at V0 and V2. FD was defined as an S&E-ADLS score less than 80%.[Results] In the PD group, a significant decrease in the S&E-ADLS score from V0 to V2 (N = 507; from 88.58 ± 10.19 to 84.26 ± 13.38; p < 0.0001; Cohen’s effect size = −0.519) was observed but not in controls (N = 124; from 98.87 ± 6.52 to 99.52 ± 2.15; p = 0.238). When only patients considered functional independent at baseline were included, 55 out of 463 (11.9%) converted to functional dependent at V2. To be a female (OR = 2.908; p = 0.009), have longer disease duration (OR = 1.152; p = 0.002), have a non-tremoric motor phenotype at baseline (OR = 3.574; p = 0.004), have a higher score at baseline in FOGQ (OR = 1.244; p < 0.0001) and BDI-II (OR = 1.080; p = 0.008), have a lower score at baseline in PD-CRS (OR = 0.963; p = 0.008), and have a greater increase in the score from V0 to V2 in UPDRS-IV (OR = 1.168; p = 0.0.29), FOGQ (OR = 1.348; p < 0.0001) and VAFS-Mental (OR = 1.177; p = 0.013) (adjusted R-squared 0.52; Hosmer and Lemeshow test = 0.94) were all found to be independent predictors of FD at V2.[Conclusions] In conclusion, autonomy for ADL worsens in PD patients compared to controls. Cognitive impairment, gait problems, fatigue, depressive symptoms, more advanced disease, and a non-tremor phenotype are independent predictors of FD in the short-term.Fundación Curemos el Parkinson (www.curemoselparkinson.org).Peer reviewe

Staging Parkinson’s Disease Combining Motor and Nonmotor Symptoms Correlates with Disability and Quality of Life

COPPADIS Study Group.[Introduction] In a degenerative disorder such as Parkinson’s disease (PD), it is important to establish clinical stages that allow to know the course of the disease. Our aim was to analyze whether a scale combining Hoehn and Yahr’s motor stage (H&Y) and the nonmotor symptoms burden (NMSB) (assessed by the nonmotor symptoms scale (NMSS)) provides information about the disability and the patient’s quality of life (QoL) with regard to a defined clinical stage.[Materials and Methods] Cross-sectional study in which 603 PD patients from the COPPADIS cohort were classified according to H&Y (1, stage I; 2, stage II; 3, stage III; 4, stage IV/V) and NMSB (A: NMSS = 0–20; B: NMSS = 21–40; C: NMSS = 41–70; D: NMSS ≥ 71) in 16 stages (HY.NMSB, from 1A to 4D). QoL was assessed with the PDQ-39SI, PQ-10, and EUROHIS-QOL8 and disability with the Schwab&England ADL (Activities of Daily Living) scale.[Results] A worse QoL and greater disability were observed at a higher stage of H&Y and NMSB (). Combining both (HY.NMSB), patients in stages 1C and 1D and 2C and 2D had significantly worse QoL and/or less autonomy for ADL than those in stages 2A and 2B and 3A and 3B, respectively (; e.g., PDQ-39SI in 1D [n = 15] vs 2A [n = 101]: 28.6 ± 17.1 vs 7.9 ± 5.8; ).[Conclusion] The HY.NMSB scale is simple and reflects the degree of patient involvement more accurately than the H&Y. Patients with a lower H&Y stage may be more affected if they have a greater NMS burden.Peer reviewe